乐鱼体育

After more than a year of escalating tensions over North Korea鈥檚 nuclear provocations and a war of words with President Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un began 2018 with a new approach: diplomatic outreach.

A season of North Korea summits began with with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and an anticipated summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, scheduled to take place in Singapore on June 12.

On the eve of the milestone April 27 meeting between Kim and Moon Jae-in, the 乐鱼 体育 brought together four foreign policy and North Korea experts to discuss unfolding diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula.

The Moon-Kim summit is the third meeting between the leaders of the two Koreas since 2000. Since then, however, relations between the two Koreas have been very tense.

鈥淲e are cautiously optimistic that this time, the inter-Korean summit and the North Korea-U.S. summit can be a success,鈥� Joonho Cheon, a minister from South Korea鈥檚 Embassy to the United States, said in opening remarks on April 25.

鈥淪ome people worry about the hurried pace of proceedings,鈥� Cheon said. 鈥淭he truth is that President Moon has been preparing for this from the moment he took office,鈥� and has presented a consistent policy for peace on the Korean Peninsula since giving a  outlining his vision for reconciliation.

The anticipated summit between Trump and Kim would be the first for the two Korean War foes. . However, no peace treaty was ever signed.

鈥淐hanges of government, bottom-up approaches and a lack of trust between North Korea and the United States all contributed to the failure鈥� of previous efforts at negotiation, Cheon said. 鈥淭his time, the situation is different. Most importantly, these talks are being conducted in a top-down manner.鈥�

鈥淣orth Korea and the United States can talk directly, building trust without the risk of any third-party miscommunication,鈥� he said.

"Even though [Kim] believes he is going into this as an equal, portraying himself as an equal, we have to remember that this is still a very poor country with a lot at stake down the road..."

Jean H. Lee, director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the 乐鱼 体育, said the inter-Korean summit would serve as 鈥渁n incredible opportunity to see how [Kim] interacts, how he behaves.鈥�

She emphasized the role of the inter-Korean summit 鈥渋n setting the ground for an upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit.鈥�

However, the former AP Pyongyang bureau chief warned that while Kim is reaching out to world leaders from a relative position of strength, having proven that it has a nuclear capability, it is important to remember that he has adopted this new diplomatic strategy in order to deal with crushing poverty.

鈥淓ven though [Kim] believes he is going into this as an equal, portraying himself as an equal, we have to remember that this is still a very poor country with a lot at stake down the road, with sanctions so tight at the moment鈥搒anctions that are going to put a real pinch on the people in the months to come if the situation isn鈥檛 resolved,鈥� she said.

. Following the failure of those agreements to bring about North Korea鈥檚 denuclearization, the world is now paying attention to whether this year鈥檚 summits will result in dismantlement of North Korea鈥檚 nuclear program.

Moderator Abraham Denmark, director of the Asia Program at the 乐鱼 体育 and a former Pentagon official, warned that despite a lull in , 鈥淣orth Korea still has not frozen its program.鈥�

鈥淚t has frozen certain aspects of testing鈥搉o nuclear tests and no testing of certain ballistic missiles鈥揫but] their nuclear scientists are still able to do their work,鈥� he said. 鈥淛ust so long as they are not conducting these full-out tests, their program is still moving. As time goes along, their capabilities can continue to improve.鈥� Foreign policy expert , the Martin R. Flug visiting lecturer at Yale Law School, pointed out that summits typically are the culmination of extended diplomacy, not the starting point as with the Trump-Kim summit.

鈥淚t has frozen certain aspects of testing鈥搉o nuclear tests and no testing of certain ballistic missiles鈥揫but] their nuclear scientists are still able to do their work.鈥�

鈥淚n many ways, inverting the process so that the leaders come first, before you have months of preparation, works to a kind of Trumpian logic of, 鈥業 go sit down with the big man on the other side, we work out the deal, we solve the problem, and then the sequencing and specifics get left to somebody else,鈥欌�� he noted.He said Trump 鈥渨ill be inclined to accept a deal on paper that involves commitments by the North Koreans to pursue denuclearization in exchange for commitments by the Americans to do a whole range of things鈥攊ncluding potentially a peace treaty, including sanctions relief, including reduction in hostile activities.鈥�, Korea chair and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Kim sees the summit 鈥渘ot just a meeting of the heads of state, but as the peak of his strategy, the peak of his goals, and the peak of his accomplishments.鈥�

The former CIA analyst reminded the audience that Kim is 鈥済ood at maximum pressure and maximum engagement鈥� in efforts to display himself as an 鈥渋nternational statesman.鈥�

Pak and Lee cautioned that Kim鈥檚 strategy is to 鈥渄ivide and conquer鈥� with bilateral summits, and urged close coordination among the neighbors and allies in the region.

The views expressed are the author's alone, and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government or the 乐鱼 体育. Copyright 2018, Asia Program. All rights reserved.